When futurologist Amy Webb appears at conferences such as South by Southwest (SXSW) in Austin, Texas, there is rarely a place left. Thousands follow each year as the founder of the Future Today Institute presents her “Tech Trends Report” . For her analysis, the professor of strategic future planning at the Stern School of Business at New York University is collecting hundreds of trends and technologies that will become more important in the coming months.
She also talks about the most important developments this week in the podcast Handelsblatt Disrupt . Her message: "Many of these technological developments are not stopped by the corona crisis - they are accelerated". These are the most important trends from the report just published :
They condense this information into profiles, and on the basis of this data, automatic systems make decisions for and about each individual: "For example, customers are increasingly being shown different offers or prices - based on the information that companies have collected about them," she says Futurologist.
Even how long and how intensively users click on certain links or images is recorded - as are noises and conversations in people's homes, via smart speakers or other networked household appliances.
Hundreds of companies then compress this data into profiles - often without the knowledge of the user. This includes companies such as Zeta Global and Kustomer, which use the information gathered to predict how much money potential customers will spend.
The provider Maxmind in turn draws conclusions from the location of the users. Which companies dominate this market - and who primarily owns the data and profiles, will be one of the big debates of the next few years, according to Webb.
"Hardly anyone has ever thought about how they will be used," warns Webb. She calls these masses of data "digital emissions", which do not harm the environment - but possibly the individual. Because millions of users reveal sensitive biometric information such as body temperature, pulse, weight (measured by networked scales, for example), eating habits and watching TV.
And new partnerships are emerging in the business: Amazon has teamed up with the prefabricated house manufacturer Lennar - to develop networked houses. Amazon has also filed a patent for a technology that allows the company's intelligent doorbell to monitor not only the entrance area of the houses, but also the surrounding area.
Google's Nest home system, in turn, identifies people with facial recognition, much like many other home technologies. As a result, millions of hours of video recordings are regularly uploaded to the Internet. The mass of information generated by people at home has so far been a resource that is often unused. But that will change, according to Webb.
The audio specialist Bose is working on such technologies, for example. Google, Amazon, Apple , Microsoft and Facebook are still researching smart glasses. Technology is already leaving the laboratories in China: the start-up Rokid has developed intelligent glasses that promise to be able to measure the body temperature of strangers. Supposedly, the glasses used by security forces in some Chinese provinces scan the temperature of hundreds of people in minutes.
The potential is enormous, says Webb. On the one hand, the field is hardly digitized. On the other hand, it is a multi-billion dollar market.
"But the new age also harbors risks," says Webb, because the technology also opens up new opportunities for fraudsters. Nobody can be sure that the U.S. President's speech, which has just been shared on Facebook , was actually delivered that way or that the social media character that thousands of people are following is genuine.
The Wall Street Journal reported in 2019 that a UK energy company employee had transferred € 220,000 to a fraudster after being asked to do so by his boss's fake voice over the phone. Webb expects the digital doubles from celebrities and top executives to be offered in the darknet marketplaces soon.
Arun Sundararajan of the NYU Stern School of Management analyzes that the winner of this race has the chance to become the operating system of the next technological age. In the course of this development, according to Webbs analyzes, robots are increasingly being controlled via the cloud. Cloud robotics and automation are the key words.
Different physical robots share programming code stored in the data cloud - and exchange data. This could significantly accelerate the development of robots. The result could be greater automation - and the return of production to high-wage countries.
According to the analyzes by Webbs Institute, AI is becoming a focus of attention as a weapon. It is no longer necessary to bomb cities to destabilize a country's economy, a sophisticated malware attack might be enough. With these AI skills, China is "dangerously superior to the West."
She also talks about the most important developments this week in the podcast Handelsblatt Disrupt . Her message: "Many of these technological developments are not stopped by the corona crisis - they are accelerated". These are the most important trends from the report just published :
1. Everyone is measured
When it comes to dealing with data, many look to China with horror. Especially when it comes to the digital rating systems with which every Chinese is categorized. But similar systems have long been in use all over the world, says Webb. Companies measure the time at which Internet users are online, what they do with their smartphones, what they read and with whom they communicate.They condense this information into profiles, and on the basis of this data, automatic systems make decisions for and about each individual: "For example, customers are increasingly being shown different offers or prices - based on the information that companies have collected about them," she says Futurologist.
Even how long and how intensively users click on certain links or images is recorded - as are noises and conversations in people's homes, via smart speakers or other networked household appliances.
Hundreds of companies then compress this data into profiles - often without the knowledge of the user. This includes companies such as Zeta Global and Kustomer, which use the information gathered to predict how much money potential customers will spend.
The provider Maxmind in turn draws conclusions from the location of the users. Which companies dominate this market - and who primarily owns the data and profiles, will be one of the big debates of the next few years, according to Webb.
2. Household data emissions
Digital thermostats, voice-controlled microwaves and intelligent loudspeakers: the market for connected home electronics is one of the fastest growing technology sectors. Many of these devices make life easier. At the same time, people use this technology to produce unimaginable amounts of data."Hardly anyone has ever thought about how they will be used," warns Webb. She calls these masses of data "digital emissions", which do not harm the environment - but possibly the individual. Because millions of users reveal sensitive biometric information such as body temperature, pulse, weight (measured by networked scales, for example), eating habits and watching TV.
And new partnerships are emerging in the business: Amazon has teamed up with the prefabricated house manufacturer Lennar - to develop networked houses. Amazon has also filed a patent for a technology that allows the company's intelligent doorbell to monitor not only the entrance area of the houses, but also the surrounding area.
Google's Nest home system, in turn, identifies people with facial recognition, much like many other home technologies. As a result, millions of hours of video recordings are regularly uploaded to the Internet. The mass of information generated by people at home has so far been a resource that is often unused. But that will change, according to Webb.
3. Digitally enhanced hearing and seeing
A few years ago, smart glasses like Google Glass were the next big thing. So far, the technology has been a disappointment. According to Webb, the so-called audio augmented reality will first gain in importance: This means intelligent headphones that are able to explain things to the user like a virtual city guide that can currently be seen in their surroundings.The audio specialist Bose is working on such technologies, for example. Google, Amazon, Apple , Microsoft and Facebook are still researching smart glasses. Technology is already leaving the laboratories in China: the start-up Rokid has developed intelligent glasses that promise to be able to measure the body temperature of strangers. Supposedly, the glasses used by security forces in some Chinese provinces scan the temperature of hundreds of people in minutes.
4. Big Tech discovers the farm
Companies like Amazon and Microsoft believe they can make agriculture more efficient using data analysis and algorithms. With Azure Farmbeats, Microsoft has developed a platform for networked farms on which data from a wide variety of sensors converge, including drones. The platform analyzes the data and then recommends the farmers how they can better use their resources.The potential is enormous, says Webb. On the one hand, the field is hardly digitized. On the other hand, it is a multi-billion dollar market.
5. The “synthetic age” begins
"We will look back at the 2020s as a time when synthetic media grew up," says Webb. Everything that users see or hear online can be artificial: there are computer-generated pop stars like the Japanese Hatsune Miku or virtual assistants like Google Duplex who organize appointments and answer calls. This can be entertaining or even helpful in the case of digital assistants."But the new age also harbors risks," says Webb, because the technology also opens up new opportunities for fraudsters. Nobody can be sure that the U.S. President's speech, which has just been shared on Facebook , was actually delivered that way or that the social media character that thousands of people are following is genuine.
The Wall Street Journal reported in 2019 that a UK energy company employee had transferred € 220,000 to a fraudster after being asked to do so by his boss's fake voice over the phone. Webb expects the digital doubles from celebrities and top executives to be offered in the darknet marketplaces soon.
6. AI and robots on call
On the cloud platforms of Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Alibaba, artificial intelligence is coming into focus more and more. With cloud-based AI applications, companies can analyze their data or plan resources more efficiently. And the more data companies entrust to the major cloud platforms, the faster they can train and improve their AI systems and thus stand out from the competition.Arun Sundararajan of the NYU Stern School of Management analyzes that the winner of this race has the chance to become the operating system of the next technological age. In the course of this development, according to Webbs analyzes, robots are increasingly being controlled via the cloud. Cloud robotics and automation are the key words.
Different physical robots share programming code stored in the data cloud - and exchange data. This could significantly accelerate the development of robots. The result could be greater automation - and the return of production to high-wage countries.
7. The digitization of war
“The wars of the future will be waged with code,” says Webb, “Data and algorithms will become weapons.” The most important AI companies in the United States and China work with the military again and again. Microsoft, for example, is building virtual reality headsets for the U.S. Army for $ 480 million. Google in turn helped the army in the Maven project, the Pentagon's AI project - but came under massive pressure from its employees.According to the analyzes by Webbs Institute, AI is becoming a focus of attention as a weapon. It is no longer necessary to bomb cities to destabilize a country's economy, a sophisticated malware attack might be enough. With these AI skills, China is "dangerously superior to the West."
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